AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 10

Tucson Roadrunners at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
5:4
Final / OT
Ontario Reign

The sheet

TUCONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
3.92.1
High danger
94
Chances
1310
Shots
2718

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal18
13Scoring chances10
9High-danger chances4
3.94Expected goals2.09

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–62–31–10.5–0.6
2nd11–66–53–21.1–0.8
3rd9–53–23–11.2–0.5
OT2–12–02–01.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:042:42+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
3.94
GSAx
-1.06
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
18
Saves
14
Allowed
4
xGA
2.09
GSAx
-1.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:35Ben McCartney (1–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 2:38Penalty
  • 1st 6:21Penalty
  • 1st 6:21Penalty
  • 1st 6:21Andre Lee (1–1)high · rebound · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 8:42Francesco Pinelli (1–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 17:30Penalty
  • 2nd 5:31Penalty
  • 2nd 5:59Sammy Walker (2–2)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 12:15Penalty
  • 2nd 12:15Penalty
  • 2nd 16:18Penalty
  • 2nd 18:58Penalty
  • 2nd 19:38Aatu Jämsen (2–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 2:09Owen Allard (3–3)high · 12 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 3:52Penalty
  • 3rd 7:00Penalty
  • 3rd 15:33Akil Thomas (3–4)low · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:33Penalty
  • 3rd 19:38Kevin Rooney (4–4)5v4 · low · 16 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • OT 0:51Sammy Walker (5–4)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Erik Portillo