Abbotsford Canucks at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Abbotsford Canucks

2:1

Final / OT

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ABBHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.83.5
High danger: 35
Chances: 610
Shots: 3037

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal37

6Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances5

2.84Expected goals3.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	0–2	0–1	0.6–1.0
2nd	10–14	3–3	2–2	1.0–1.2
3rd	9–11	3–5	1–2	1.1–1.2
OT	2–0	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:46	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.45
GSAx: +2.45

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:52Penalty
2nd 1:04Penalty
2nd 8:01Ben Berard (1–0)medium · snap · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 9:46Penalty
2nd 11:11Penalty
2nd 12:52Penalty
2nd 12:52Penalty
3rd 11:28Penalty
3rd 17:42Tanner Laczynski (1–1)grade A · backhand · 23 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
OT 0:53Max Sasson (2–1)low · 12 ft · beat Carl Lindbom