San Diego Gulls at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Diego Gulls

5:0

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SDCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 4.83.1
High danger: 78
Chances: 1511
Shots: 4426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal26

15Scoring chances11

7High-danger chances8

4.80Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	18–5	3–2	2–1	1.9–0.5
2nd	13–7	5–2	3–1	1.4–0.5
3rd	13–14	7–7	2–6	1.6–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 39
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.80
GSAx: -0.20

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 26
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: +3.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:52Penalty
1st 11:45Penalty
1st 19:38Ryan Carpenter (1–0)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 3:12Tim Washe (2–0)high · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 10:38Judd Caulfield (3–0)low · 23 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 4:26Sasha Pastujov (4–0)medium · 34 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 6:08Penalty
3rd 10:25Matthew Phillips (5–0)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 12:20Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty