Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans

1:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.22.4
High danger: 57
Chances: 1011
Shots: 3321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal21

10Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances7

3.15Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–5	3–2	2–0	1.3–0.4
2nd	11–8	5–2	1–1	1.1–0.6
3rd	5–8	2–7	2–6	0.8–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.15
GSAx: +2.15

Topias Leinonen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: -1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 11:24Penalty
2nd 12:40Penalty
2nd 14:21Travis Boyd (0–1)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
2nd 19:47Travis Boyd (0–2)medium · 34 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
3rd 1:41Penalty
3rd 9:39Penalty
3rd 11:05Jake Leschyshyn (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 11:22Ryan Tverberg (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
3rd 18:14Logan Shaw (1–4)empty net · high · 18 ft · beat Topias Leinonen