AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 11

Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors
6:7
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
2.94.2
High danger
411
Chances
917
Shots
3336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal36
9Scoring chances17
4High-danger chances11
2.93Expected goals4.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–84–42–21.2–0.8
2nd13–193–81–71.0–2.4
3rd10–92–51–20.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
36
Saves
29
Allowed
7
xGA
4.25
GSAx
-2.75
Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
33
Saves
27
Allowed
6
xGA
2.93
GSAx
-3.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:39Rem Pitlick (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 7:15Filip Bystedt (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 11:43Zack Ostapchuk (1–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 14:22Penalty
  • 1st 14:47Seth Griffith (2–2)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 15:06Riley Stillman (3–2)low · 37 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 15:12Penalty
  • 1st 19:47Patrick Giles (3–3)high · 8 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 1:25Penalty
  • 2nd 2:56Penalty
  • 2nd 3:10Quentin Musty (3–4)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 6:37Penalty
  • 2nd 7:16Luca Cagnoni (3–5)5v4 · low · 57 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 9:31Penalty
  • 2nd 9:31Penalty
  • 2nd 12:16Jimmy Huntington (3–6)high · rebound · 32 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 16:06Max Jones (4–6)low · 19 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 18:11Roby Järventie (5–6)medium · 10 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 19:39Penalty
  • 3rd 1:24Penalty
  • 3rd 1:42Ethan Cardwell (5–7)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 7:09Penalty
  • 3rd 7:09Penalty
  • 3rd 7:09Penalty
  • 3rd 8:25Rhett Pitlick (6–7)4v5 · low · 14 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 11:47Penalty
  • 3rd 15:54Penalty