Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers

4:3

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.82.8
High danger: 53
Chances: 149
Shots: 3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29

14Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances3

3.76Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–9	8–4	5–2	2.2–1.2
2nd	15–10	3–3	0–1	1.0–0.9
3rd	5–10	3–2	0–0	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: -0.24

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:19Jack Studnicka (1–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 0:36Penalty
1st 0:46Penalty
1st 7:07Penalty
1st 9:04Ben Steeves (2–0)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 11:28Ludvig Jansson (3–0)low · 37 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 12:30Penalty
1st 14:37Otto Stenberg (3–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 16:10Matt Luff (3–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 19:17Penalty
2nd 1:19Penalty
2nd 2:11Jack Devine (4–2)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 4:34Penalty
2nd 13:43Penalty
2nd 17:17Penalty
2nd 17:17Penalty
3rd 18:23Juraj Pekarcik (4–3)low · 54 ft · beat Cooper Black