Chicago Wolves at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Chicago Wolves

4:1

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

CHIIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 2.91.9
High danger: 62
Chances: 127
Shots: 2823

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal23

12Scoring chances7

6High-danger chances2

2.90Expected goals1.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	2–2	2–0	0.6–0.8
2nd	8–6	5–3	2–2	1.1–0.7
3rd	14–6	5–2	2–0	1.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: -1.10

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: +0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:14Riley Heidt (0–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
1st 10:09Penalty
1st 11:06Penalty
1st 11:59Bradly Nadeau (1–1)5v4 · high · 34 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 13:38Penalty
2nd 14:55Penalty
2nd 16:15Felix Unger Sörum (2–1)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 1:55Penalty
3rd 4:41Domenick Fensore (3–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 7:56Penalty
3rd 7:56Penalty
3rd 17:02Penalty
3rd 17:02Penalty
3rd 19:06Nikita Pavlychev (4–1)empty net · low · 68 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty
3rd 19:28Penalty