AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 11

Belleville Senators at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Belleville Senators
2:5
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

BELLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
89%11%
xG
2.91.5
High danger
30
Chances
94
Shots
2920

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal20
9Scoring chances4
3High-danger chances0
2.88Expected goals1.49

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–53–11–01.3–0.3
2nd7–101–31–00.3–0.9
3rd11–55–01–01.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−4−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL40:00 of the 3rd20:0013:04+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
29
Saves
27
Allowed
2
xGA
2.88
GSAx
+0.88
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
20
Saves
15
Allowed
5
xGA
1.49
GSAx
-3.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:41Penalty
  • 1st 6:18Devin Kaplan (0–1)low · 33 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 8:58Devin Kaplan (0–2)low · 54 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 16:22Penalty
  • 2nd 0:48Penalty
  • 2nd 2:08Karsen Dorwart (0–3)5v4 · medium · 43 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 3:11Penalty
  • 2nd 9:12Lane Pederson (0–4)low · 51 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 10:58Penalty
  • 2nd 13:01Penalty
  • 2nd 16:59Penalty
  • 3rd 1:20Keean Washkurak (1–4)grade A · 13 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 3:55Penalty
  • 3rd 5:13Xavier Bourgault (2–4)4v5 · medium · 30 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 11:19Penalty
  • 3rd 11:19Penalty
  • 3rd 14:22Penalty
  • 3rd 18:53Ty Murchison (2–5)empty net · low · 121 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 19:14Penalty