AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 11

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
2:3
Final / OT
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
72%28%
xG
3.42.3
High danger
73
Chances
1110
Shots
3725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal25
11Scoring chances10
7High-danger chances3
3.40Expected goals2.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–64–22–01.5–0.4
2nd12–94–32–11.1–0.7
3rd8–93–43–10.7–0.8
OT1–10–10–10.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:041:14+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
37
Saves
35
Allowed
2
xGA
3.40
GSAx
+1.40
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.32
GSAx
-0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:54Penalty
  • 1st 13:08Penalty
  • 1st 13:08Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Brett Seney (0–1)low · 48 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 15:32Penalty
  • 1st 15:32Penalty
  • 1st 16:12Jordan Oesterle (1–1)low · 44 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 10:05Penalty
  • 2nd 10:05Penalty
  • 2nd 13:36Penalty
  • 3rd 4:13Penalty
  • 3rd 7:07Joey Willis (2–1)high · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 18:10Jackson Cates (2–2)low · 60 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • OT 1:38Samuel Savoie (2–3)grade A · 46 ft · beat Matthew Murray