Abbotsford Canucks at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Abbotsford Canucks

4:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ABBHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 3.42.7
High danger: 43
Chances: 1010
Shots: 3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances3

3.41Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–6	3–4	0–2	1.3–1.1
2nd	8–10	1–1	0–0	0.6–0.5
3rd	11–13	6–5	4–1	1.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Vikman

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: -0.59

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: +0.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:42Penalty
1st 17:54Penalty
1st 17:54Tuomas Uronen (0–1)high · rebound · 6 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 0:29Penalty
2nd 3:59Raphael Lavoie (0–2)low · 41 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 4:23Joseph LaBate (1–2)medium · wrist · 8 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
2nd 16:15Max Sasson (2–2)low · 26 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 0:32Penalty
3rd 3:18Mackenzie MacEachern (3–2)high · 6 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 10:53Penalty
3rd 11:00Joseph LaBate (4–2)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 11:41Penalty