AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 12

Belleville Senators at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Belleville Senators
2:6
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

BELBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.42.9
High danger
24
Chances
814
Shots
3134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal34
8Scoring chances14
2High-danger chances4
2.42Expected goals2.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–152–80–20.8–1.5
2nd10–74–42–10.8–0.7
3rd10–122–20–10.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
34
Saves
28
Allowed
6
xGA
2.94
GSAx
-3.06
Parker Gahagen
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
2.42
GSAx
+0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:07Tyler Boucher (1–0)low · 13 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
  • 1st 3:26Marshall Warren (1–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 3:31Penalty
  • 1st 3:31Penalty
  • 1st 3:31Penalty
  • 1st 3:31Penalty
  • 1st 4:41Cole McWard (1–2)high · rebound · 31 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 11:52Penalty
  • 1st 17:19Carter Yakemchuk (2–2)low · 20 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
  • 1st 18:04Penalty
  • 1st 19:18Hunter Drew (2–3)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 0:28Penalty
  • 2nd 8:35Penalty
  • 2nd 9:57Penalty
  • 2nd 13:15Penalty
  • 2nd 17:46Penalty
  • 3rd 1:49Penalty
  • 3rd 12:04Marshall Warren (2–4)low · 45 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 17:25Max Dorrington (2–5)empty net · low · 29 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 19:21Liam Foudy (2–6)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Hunter Shepard