AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 12

Charlotte Checkers at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Charlotte Checkers
3:6
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

CLTPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
3.22.8
High danger
14
Chances
89
Shots
3729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal29
8Scoring chances9
1High-danger chances4
3.20Expected goals2.82

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–84–21–01.2–0.7
2nd14–112–60–30.8–1.4
3rd14–102–10–11.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT216:23 of the 3rd3:373:37+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
37
Saves
34
Allowed
3
xGA
3.20
GSAx
+0.20
Cooper Black
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.72
GSAx
-2.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:14Fabian Lysell (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 1st 2:17Penalty
  • 1st 16:15Wilmer Skoog (1–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 19:28Riese Gaber (2–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 6:48Penalty
  • 2nd 8:12Matěj Blümel (2–2)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 2nd 12:58Penalty
  • 2nd 13:37Ben Steeves (3–2)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 14:27Penalty
  • 2nd 15:23Patrick Brown (3–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 3rd 0:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:55Fabian Lysell (3–4)low · 67 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 3rd 12:10Penalty
  • 3rd 16:23Fabian Lysell (3–5)low · 48 ft · beat Cooper Black
  • 3rd 18:37Alex Steeves (3–6)empty net · low · 34 ft