AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 12

Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs
6:2
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
4.42.3
High danger
103
Chances
177
Shots
3331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal31
17Scoring chances7
10High-danger chances3
4.36Expected goals2.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–97–34–11.8–0.8
2nd7–105–33–11.0–0.8
3rd13–125–13–11.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj
Shots faced
33
Saves
27
Allowed
6
xGA
4.36
GSAx
-1.64
Stanislav Berezhnoy
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
2.29
GSAx
+0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:56Penalty
  • 1st 6:45Penalty
  • 1st 9:28Dillon Boucher (1–0)medium · 6 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 14:01Oliver Moore (2–0)low · 30 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 18:29Jamie Engelbert (3–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 9:50Oliver Moore (4–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 10:47Penalty
  • 2nd 10:47Penalty
  • 2nd 10:51Tyler Pitlick (4–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
  • 2nd 13:16Penalty
  • 2nd 18:05Connor Mylymok (5–1)grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 3:44Penalty
  • 3rd 7:16Tyler Pitlick (5–2)low · 21 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
  • 3rd 9:01Penalty
  • 3rd 10:01Dominic Toninato (6–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 14:25Penalty