AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 12

Tucson Roadrunners at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
2:4
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

TUCONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
2.42.5
High danger
43
Chances
912
Shots
2127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances12
4High-danger chances3
2.42Expected goals2.45

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–52–32–10.6–0.5
2nd10–134–62–21.3–1.2
3rd4–93–30–00.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.45
GSAx
-1.55
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
21
Saves
19
Allowed
2
xGA
2.42
GSAx
+0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:21Kevin Rooney (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 6:22Penalty
  • 1st 11:34Penalty
  • 1st 11:34Penalty
  • 1st 11:34Penalty
  • 1st 13:27Penalty
  • 1st 16:14Akil Thomas (1–1)high · 21 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 19:22Penalty
  • 2nd 1:03Cameron Hebig (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 3:02Penalty
  • 2nd 9:33Joe Hicketts (2–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 10:52Penalty
  • 2nd 10:52Penalty
  • 2nd 18:01Otto Salin (2–3)high · 10 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 18:04Penalty
  • 3rd 5:08Penalty
  • 3rd 5:12Martin Chromiak (2–4)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 9:56Penalty
  • 3rd 13:38Penalty