AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 17

Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins
5:3
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
61%39%
xG
3.03.0
High danger
75
Chances
1313
Shots
3230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal30
13Scoring chances13
7High-danger chances5
2.99Expected goals3.00

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–96–42–11.3–0.8
2nd13–115–43–11.2–0.9
3rd3–102–52–30.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Marcus Högberg
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
2.99
GSAx
-2.01
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
3.00
GSAx
-0.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:36Riley Tufte (1–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 1st 2:22Penalty
  • 1st 6:31Penalty
  • 1st 6:38Alex Steeves (2–0)5v4 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 1st 6:52Penalty
  • 1st 9:00Calum Ritchie (2–1)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 10:23Patrick Brown (3–1)high · 8 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 1st 11:51Penalty
  • 2nd 14:05Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:38Alex Steeves (4–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 0:46Penalty
  • 3rd 1:26Riley Tufte (5–1)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 7:02Penalty
  • 3rd 8:04Joey Larson (5–2)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 9:30Penalty
  • 3rd 13:50Penalty
  • 3rd 13:50Penalty
  • 3rd 17:15Penalty
  • 3rd 19:14Matthew Maggio (5–3)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Michael DiPietro