AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 17

Manitoba Moose at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Manitoba Moose
2:5
Final
Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MBGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
16%84%
xG
1.84.5
High danger
37
Chances
614
Shots
2341

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
GR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal41
6Scoring chances14
3High-danger chances7
1.75Expected goals4.51

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–172–61–50.9–1.8
2nd6–103–21–10.6–1.0
3rd4–141–61–10.3–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB213:56 of the 3rd6:046:04+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
41
Saves
36
Allowed
5
xGA
4.51
GSAx
-0.49
Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.75
GSAx
-0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:14Austin Watson (0–1)medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 7:59Samuel Fagemo (1–1)low · 49 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 1st 8:50Penalty
  • 1st 9:14Sheldon Dries (1–2)4v5 · high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 13:54Dominik Shine (1–3)low · snap · 35 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 4:36Penalty
  • 2nd 5:44Danny Zhilkin (2–3)5v4 · medium · slap · 37 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 9:02Penalty
  • 2nd 19:26Penalty
  • 3rd 13:56Alex Doucet (2–4)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 15:01Penalty
  • 3rd 15:01Penalty
  • 3rd 15:01Penalty
  • 3rd 15:01Penalty
  • 3rd 15:01Penalty
  • 3rd 15:31Carter Mazur (2–5)low · 31 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis