Rochester Americans at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Rochester Americans

7:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

ROCUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.03.8
High danger: 57
Chances: 1315
Shots: 2730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances15

5High-danger chances7

2.96Expected goals3.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	6–3	3–2	1.3–0.8
2nd	10–13	3–8	0–2	0.8–1.6
3rd	6–9	4–4	2–3	0.9–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: -0.20

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 20
Allowed: 7
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: -4.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:16Penalty
1st 2:48Xavier Parent (0–1)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 6:04Matyas Melovsky (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 10:20Vsevolod Komarov (1–2)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 10:35Penalty
1st 12:25Konsta Helenius (2–2)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 15:40Viktor Neuchev (3–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 16:31Penalty
1st 17:11Isak Rosén (4–2)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 18:59Noah Östlund (5–2)low · 53 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 5:33Penalty
2nd 7:08Penalty
2nd 10:18Penalty
2nd 10:18Penalty
2nd 10:18Penalty
2nd 11:42Penalty
3rd 8:36Brendan Warren (6–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 9:14Penalty
3rd 9:14Penalty
3rd 9:14Penalty
3rd 9:14Penalty
3rd 15:08Riley Fiddler-Schultz (7–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 18:41Angus Crookshank (7–3)high · 15 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 19:32Thomas Bordeleau (7–4)low · 32 ft · beat Devon Levi