Iowa Wild at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Iowa Wild

1:4

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

IACLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 0.92.6
High danger: 12
Chances: 311
Shots: 1230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 68% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

12Shots on goal30

3Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances2

0.95Expected goals2.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	2–3	0–0	0.4–0.7
2nd	5–11	1–6	1–2	0.4–1.2
3rd	2–8	0–2	0–0	0.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -1.44

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.95
GSAx: -0.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:19Ben Steeves (0–1)low · 39 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 6:49Liam Öhgren (1–1)low · 36 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 19:34Penalty
2nd 4:42Penalty
2nd 8:32Nolan Foote (1–2)medium · 33 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 10:17Penalty
2nd 10:17Penalty
2nd 13:35Penalty
2nd 14:34Tyler Motte (1–3)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 0:45Penalty
3rd 3:36Penalty
3rd 7:03Penalty
3rd 9:33Penalty
3rd 14:21Penalty
3rd 18:23Marek Alscher (1–4)empty net · low · 95 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj