AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 18

Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars
3:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
2.32.7
High danger
44
Chances
811
Shots
2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29
8Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances4
2.28Expected goals2.73

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–93–21–10.7–0.7
2nd12–65–33–01.3–0.6
3rd5–140–60–30.3–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX117:38 of the 3rd2:222:22+0.050 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
29
Saves
24
Allowed
5
xGA
2.73
GSAx
-2.27
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.28
GSAx
-0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:52Penalty
  • 1st 8:52Penalty
  • 1st 9:33Artem Shlaine (1–0)high · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 10:18Ryder Rolston (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 14:38Trey Taylor (2–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 15:10Penalty
  • 1st 15:10Penalty
  • 2nd 9:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:47Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 15:17Penalty
  • 2nd 16:03Matthew Wood (2–2)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 17:34Kyle Capobianco (3–2)low · 66 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 12:42Zach L’Heureux (3–3)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 17:38Daniel Carr (3–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 19:03Kyle Marino (3–5)empty net · low · 30 ft · beat Rémi Poirier