Manitoba Moose at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Manitoba Moose

2:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MBGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 3.91.8
High danger: 43
Chances: 148
Shots: 3724

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal24

14Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances3

3.85Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	1–0	0–0	0.4–0.4
2nd	15–12	5–6	2–2	1.7–1.0
3rd	16–5	8–2	2–1	1.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	2:28 of the 3rd	17:32	9:12	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: +1.85

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: -2.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 6:52Penalty
2nd 7:59Eduards Tralmaks (0–1)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 14:09Penalty
2nd 16:37Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
3rd 2:12Eduards Tralmaks (0–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 2:28John Leonard (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 3:38Penalty
3rd 3:49Phillip Di Giuseppe (1–3)4v5 · medium · 26 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 19:07John Leonard (1–4)empty net · low · 81 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:54Brayden Yager (2–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Michal Postava