Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

3:2

Final / SO

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

LVCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.73.5
High danger: 68
Chances: 1213
Shots: 2735

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal35

12Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances8

2.74Expected goals3.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	3–4	2–1	0.9–1.0
2nd	5–10	4–5	3–3	0.7–1.3
3rd	12–12	5–4	1–4	1.1–1.2
OT	0–2	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:44	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: +1.53

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: +0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:34Penalty
1st 11:02Brendan Gaunce (0–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
1st 12:30Penalty
1st 14:15Denver Barkey (1–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
1st 14:35Penalty
1st 17:14Penalty
2nd 4:02Penalty
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 8:53Penalty
2nd 9:41Anthony Richard (2–1)5v4 · high · 33 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
3rd 8:44Penalty
3rd 17:40Ryland Mosley (2–2)high · 7 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason