AHLDashboard
Saturday, October 18

Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies
2:1
Final / OT
Belleville Senators

The sheet

TORBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
2.51.9
High danger
25
Chances
106
Shots
2520

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal20
10Scoring chances6
2High-danger chances5
2.46Expected goals1.91

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9320000.60.1
2nd11653121.40.8
3rd41033130.51.0
OT1100000.10.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.46
GSAx
+0.46
Shots faced
20
Saves
19
Allowed
1
xGA
1.91
GSAx
+0.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:40Penalty
  • 2nd 7:02Penalty
  • 2nd 11:28Penalty
  • 2nd 17:26Borya Valis (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 3rd 6:51Penalty
  • 3rd 6:51Penalty
  • 3rd 6:51Penalty
  • 3rd 6:51Penalty
  • 3rd 8:53Oskar Pettersson (1–1)high · 22 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • OT 3:07Borya Valis (2–1)low · 40 ft · beat Mads Søgaard