Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:5

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.42.2
High danger: 12
Chances: 79
Shots: 3322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal22

7Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances2

2.41Expected goals2.15

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	3–4	0–2	0.9–1.0
2nd	9–8	0–4	0–0	0.4–0.8
3rd	14–4	4–1	1–0	1.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +0.41

Talyn Boyko

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: -2.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:39Jonathan Aspirot (0–1)low · 59 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
1st 7:21Jaroslav Chmelar (1–1)low · 47 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 12:35Riley Tufte (1–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
1st 13:11Dans Locmelis (1–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
1st 18:11Penalty
2nd 0:49Billy Sweezey (1–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
2nd 2:37Penalty
2nd 11:30Georgii Merkulov (1–5)low · 10 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
2nd 12:32Trey Fix-Wolansky (2–5)low · 60 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 17:58Penalty
3rd 3:12Penalty
3rd 10:28Penalty
3rd 19:35Penalty
3rd 19:35Penalty
3rd 19:35Penalty