Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

3:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 1.92.1
High danger: 23
Chances: 78
Shots: 2620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal20

7Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances3

1.92Expected goals2.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	1–3	0–1	0.5–0.9
2nd	10–7	4–3	1–2	0.9–0.8
3rd	9–4	2–2	1–0	0.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.92
GSAx: -1.08

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: +1.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 3:17Penalty
2nd 3:17Penalty
2nd 3:17Penalty
2nd 7:52Danil Gushchin (1–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 8:55Jason Polin (2–0)low · 23 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 11:20Gustav Olofsson (2–1)low · 11 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 13:43Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 15:31Penalty
3rd 19:36Danil Gushchin (3–1)empty net · medium · 18 ft · beat Nikke Kokko