AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 18

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
4:5
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
4.24.4
High danger
612
Chances
1517
Shots
3434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal34
15Scoring chances17
6High-danger chances12
4.16Expected goals4.45

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–143–101–60.9–2.2
2nd8–114–32–20.9–1.2
3rd18–57–42–41.9–0.8
OT1–41–01–00.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY30:00 of the 3rd20:003:21+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
4.16
GSAx
+0.16
Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
34
Saves
29
Allowed
5
xGA
4.44
GSAx
-0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:37Matvei Gridin (1–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 10:44Cameron Hebig (1–1)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 14:31Noel Nordh (1–2)high · 12 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 16:04Penalty
  • 1st 16:04Penalty
  • 1st 16:23Daniil But (1–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 2:42Penalty
  • 2nd 6:40Penalty
  • 2nd 10:52Max Szuber (1–4)low · 43 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 19:17Penalty
  • 3rd 0:55Hunter Brzustewicz (2–4)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 6:27Penalty
  • 3rd 7:16Rory Kerins (3–4)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 8:32Penalty
  • 3rd 11:21Penalty
  • 3rd 11:30Penalty
  • 3rd 15:14Penalty
  • 3rd 19:22Rory Kerins (4–4)grade A · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • OT 0:26Penalty
  • OT 4:09Austin Poganski (4–5)low · 23 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov