AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 19

Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs
5:6
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
2.82.8
High danger
45
Chances
1012
Shots
2826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal26
10Scoring chances12
4High-danger chances5
2.79Expected goals2.82

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–113–40–10.7–1.0
2nd5–122–51–20.5–1.2
3rd14–35–33–21.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.79
GSAx
-2.21
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.82
GSAx
-3.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:45Bradly Nadeau (0–1)medium · 5 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 4:44Ronan Seeley (0–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 5:10Penalty
  • 1st 6:40Nikita Pavlychev (0–3)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 7:10Penalty
  • 1st 11:31Penalty
  • 1st 14:33Penalty
  • 1st 17:29Ryan Gagnier (1–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 1st 19:00Penalty
  • 2nd 5:52Brett Seney (2–3)low · 29 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 6:37Penalty
  • 2nd 6:41Penalty
  • 2nd 8:09Nick Lardis (3–3)low · 34 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 8:45Dmitry Kuzmin (4–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 9:37Gavin Bayreuther (4–4)low · 57 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 13:04Penalty
  • 2nd 13:04Penalty
  • 2nd 13:53Dominic Toninato (5–4)high · 9 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
  • 2nd 14:56Penalty
  • 2nd 16:41Felix Unger Sörum (5–5)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 2:09Ryan Suzuki (5–6)medium · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 10:16Penalty
  • 3rd 15:51Penalty