Springfield Thunderbirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

5:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

SPRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.02.2
High danger: 72
Chances: 105
Shots: 2829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances5

7High-danger chances2

2.97Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	3–2	2–2	1.0–0.7
2nd	11–7	5–1	5–0	1.6–0.5
3rd	6–14	2–2	0–0	0.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +1.24

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -2.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:14Penalty
1st 3:14Penalty
1st 7:06Jakub Stancl (1–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 14:00Penalty
1st 16:18Penalty
1st 19:36Hunter Skinner (2–0)high · 6 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 11:45Matt Luff (3–0)high · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 14:11Dalibor Dvorský (4–0)high · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 15:24Henrik Rybinski (4–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 18:44Penalty
2nd 19:37Theo Lindstein (5–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 2:07Penalty
3rd 2:07Penalty
3rd 7:11Penalty
3rd 15:36Penalty