AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 19

Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles
2:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
2.61.5
High danger
21
Chances
126
Shots
2815

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal15
12Scoring chances6
2High-danger chances1
2.61Expected goals1.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–710–42–01.8–0.8
2nd9–32–10–10.6–0.3
3rd7–50–10–00.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.54
GSAx
+0.54
Kyle Keyser
Shots faced
15
Saves
12
Allowed
3
xGA
1.53
GSAx
-1.47
Isaiah Saville
Shots faced
3
Saves
3
Allowed
0
xGA
0.06
GSAx
+0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:30Ivan Ivan (1–0)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 7:43Penalty
  • 1st 11:53Penalty
  • 1st 12:32Martin Chromiak (1–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 1st 13:13Penalty
  • 1st 13:13Penalty
  • 1st 13:47Penalty
  • 1st 17:14Penalty
  • 1st 19:47Penalty
  • 2nd 3:15Penalty
  • 2nd 4:43Penalty
  • 2nd 8:00Penalty
  • 2nd 10:03Danil Gushchin (2–1)low · 49 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 12:22Penalty
  • 3rd 0:38Samuel Bolduc (2–2)low · 56 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 3rd 5:11Penalty
  • 3rd 5:40Samuel Bolduc (2–3)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Kyle Keyser
  • 3rd 13:07Penalty
  • 3rd 17:39Penalty
  • 3rd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 19:09Penalty