Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

0:3

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.13.6
High danger: 55
Chances: 1316
Shots: 2829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal29

13Scoring chances16

5High-danger chances5

3.07Expected goals3.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	10–6	5–1	2.1–1.2
2nd	3–9	0–4	0–1	0.1–1.0
3rd	12–10	3–6	0–3	0.8–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.60
GSAx: +0.60

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 28
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: +3.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:03Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 5:38Penalty
1st 9:25Penalty
1st 19:35Penalty
2nd 7:40Bryce McConnell-Barker (0–1)low · 10 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 13:03Penalty
2nd 15:55Penalty
2nd 16:01Penalty
2nd 19:39Penalty
3rd 3:01Penalty
3rd 8:38Carey Terrance (0–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 19:38Adam Sýkora (0–3)empty net · high · 5 ft · beat Georgii Romanov