AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 24

Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds
3:5
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
17%83%
xG
2.24.3
High danger
37
Chances
1018
Shots
2341

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal41
10Scoring chances18
3High-danger chances7
2.21Expected goals4.28

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–111–40–00.5–1.0
2nd11–195–102–61.0–2.2
3rd7–114–41–10.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR118:13 of the 3rd1:471:47+0.042 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
40
Saves
36
Allowed
4
xGA
4.28
GSAx
+0.28
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.21
GSAx
-0.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:57Dans Locmelis (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 10:15Penalty
  • 1st 14:41Penalty
  • 2nd 0:30Penalty
  • 2nd 3:04Riley Tufte (0–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 12:13Patrick Brown (0–3)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 16:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:18Dalibor Dvorský (1–3)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 19:28Penalty
  • 3rd 0:52Juraj Pekarcik (2–3)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 2:36Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (3–3)low · 18 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 18:13Fabian Lysell (3–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 19:55Patrick Brown (3–5)empty net · low · 78 ft