AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 24

Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears
4:5
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
80%20%
xG
3.12.1
High danger
72
Chances
117
Shots
2920

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal20
11Scoring chances7
7High-danger chances2
3.14Expected goals2.09

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–75–24–11.9–0.7
2nd8–75–42–10.9–0.9
3rd5–61–11–00.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER119:16 of the 3rd0:440:44+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.14
GSAx
-0.86
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
20
Saves
15
Allowed
5
xGA
2.09
GSAx
-2.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:19Penalty
  • 1st 5:02Karsen Dorwart (0–1)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 12:06Penalty
  • 1st 12:26Graeme Clarke (1–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 38 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 1st 15:30Zayde Wisdom (1–2)low · 40 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 19:16Tucker Robertson (1–3)high · 5 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 0:24Spencer Smallman (2–3)high · 11 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 2nd 5:22Penalty
  • 2nd 6:32Penalty
  • 2nd 13:28Jacob Gaucher (2–4)medium · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 15:52Penalty
  • 2nd 16:40Matt Strome (3–4)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 3rd 10:39Graeme Clarke (4–4)high · 16 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 19:16Zayde Wisdom (4–5)low · 36 ft · beat Clay Stevenson