Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds

5:4

Final / OT

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 3.84.9
High danger: 711
Chances: 1217
Shots: 2637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal37

12Scoring chances17

7High-danger chances11

3.82Expected goals4.91

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–15	6–7	5–6	2.2–2.4
2nd	6–16	2–7	1–3	0.6–1.8
3rd	8–5	4–3	1–2	1.0–0.6
OT	1–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:32	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Owen Say

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.82
GSAx: -1.18

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.50
GSAx: +0.50

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:54Penalty
1st 6:25Clark Bishop (0–1)high · backhand · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 8:08Rory Kerins (0–2)medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 10:08Penalty
1st 11:55Jakov Novak (1–2)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 7 ft · beat Owen Say
2nd 10:44Matvei Gridin (1–3)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 16:16Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:58Jagger Firkus (2–3)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Owen Say
3rd 3:41Penalty
3rd 4:05Clark Bishop (2–4)4v5 · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 5:15Logan Morrison (3–4)5v4 · high · snap · 6 ft · beat Owen Say
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 17:28Jagger Firkus (4–4)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Owen Say
OT 0:44Penalty
OT 0:44Jacob Melanson (5–4)low · backhand · 170 ft · beat Owen Say