Rockford IceHogs at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Rockford IceHogs

0:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

RFDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 2.74.8
High danger: 515
Chances: 1119
Shots: 2542

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 74% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal42

11Scoring chances19

5High-danger chances15

2.66Expected goals4.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–4	1–4	0.8–1.1
2nd	9–14	5–9	2–6	1.0–1.9
3rd	7–17	3–6	2–5	0.9–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.04
GSAx: +0.04

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +2.66

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:36Penalty
1st 13:45Tristen Nielsen (0–1)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 14:19Penalty
1st 14:19Penalty
1st 14:19Penalty
1st 14:19Penalty
1st 17:05Penalty
2nd 0:42Penalty
2nd 2:26Jayson Megna (0–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 4:22Penalty
2nd 9:14Reilly Connors (0–3)high · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 10:21Penalty
2nd 15:20Penalty
2nd 15:20Penalty
3rd 7:38Penalty
3rd 8:19Penalty
3rd 10:17Jason Polin (0–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 11:07Penalty
3rd 11:07Penalty
3rd 12:18Penalty
3rd 12:18Penalty
3rd 12:18Penalty
3rd 14:19Taylor Makar (0–5)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 15:06Penalty
3rd 15:06Penalty
3rd 15:14Penalty