Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors

1:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.83.1
High danger: 36
Chances: 129
Shots: 2829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances6

2.80Expected goals3.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	3–5	1–2	0.7–1.3
2nd	10–7	6–1	2–1	1.3–0.6
3rd	11–8	3–3	0–3	0.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	2:51 of the 3rd	17:09	17:09	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: -1.87

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +1.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:16Penalty
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 12:51Penalty
1st 13:37Roby Järventie (1–0)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 15:14Penalty
1st 16:50Daniil But (1–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Connor Ingram
2nd 2:25Penalty
2nd 8:12Penalty
2nd 16:21Ben McCartney (1–2)low · 25 ft · beat Connor Ingram
2nd 18:46Daniil But (1–3)high · 12 ft · beat Connor Ingram
3rd 2:51Michal Kunc (1–4)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Connor Ingram
3rd 8:40Penalty
3rd 8:40Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 13:40Ben McCartney (1–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Connor Ingram
3rd 17:08Penalty
3rd 17:08Penalty
3rd 19:11Penalty