AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 24

Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign
5:2
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.52.4
High danger
34
Chances
57
Shots
2626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal26
5Scoring chances7
3High-danger chances4
2.50Expected goals2.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–101–20–10.4–0.8
2nd9–90–20–10.4–0.6
3rd10–74–33–21.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB37:39 of the 3rd12:2112:21+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
26
Saves
24
Allowed
2
xGA
2.35
GSAx
+0.35
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.37
GSAx
-1.63
Jiří Patera
Shots faced
2
Saves
1
Allowed
1
xGA
0.12
GSAx
-0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:36Andre Lee (1–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 10:43Penalty
  • 1st 18:59Penalty
  • 1st 19:47Ben Berard (1–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 5:06Penalty
  • 2nd 8:34Penalty
  • 2nd 12:38Taylor Ward (2–1)low · 40 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 18:12Penalty
  • 2nd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 4:20Taylor Ward (3–1)low · 34 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 4:31Penalty
  • 3rd 5:51Penalty
  • 3rd 7:39Andre Lee (4–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 13:44Penalty
  • 3rd 14:14Mackenzie MacEachern (4–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 19:24Glenn Gawdin (5–2)empty net · low · 72 ft · beat Jiří Patera