Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

4:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 1.92.9
High danger: 32
Chances: 69
Shots: 2331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal31

6Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances2

1.94Expected goals2.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	1–3	1–0	0.8–0.8
2nd	8–12	3–3	2–1	0.8–0.9
3rd	5–9	2–3	0–1	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.85
GSAx: +0.85

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -2.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:37Penalty
1st 8:13Carter Yakemchuk (1–0)low · 24 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 17:45Keean Washkurak (2–0)low · 27 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 7:20Penalty
2nd 13:17Oskar Pettersson (3–0)low · 20 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 14:35Alex Nylander (3–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 18:33Hayden Hodgson (4–1)low · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 6:16Penalty
3rd 19:12Alex Nylander (4–2)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Hunter Shepard