AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 25

Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack
6:3
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
87%13%
xG
4.01.4
High danger
62
Chances
135
Shots
3515

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal15
13Scoring chances5
6High-danger chances2
3.97Expected goals1.36

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–46–12–01.5–0.4
2nd13–47–14–12.3–0.2
3rd5–70–30–10.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.65
GSAx
-2.35
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
15
Saves
12
Allowed
3
xGA
1.36
GSAx
-1.64
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
13
Saves
12
Allowed
1
xGA
1.33
GSAx
+0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:47Penalty
  • 1st 13:36Corey Schueneman (0–1)low · 49 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 15:53Penalty
  • 1st 16:15Dylan Roobroeck (1–1)5v4 · high · 32 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 1st 18:30Blake Hillman (2–1)low · 18 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 0:44Brendan Brisson (3–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 2:09Carey Terrance (4–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 2:26Gabe Perreault (5–1)high · 21 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 3:39Leo Lööf (5–2)low · 56 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 7:55Bryce McConnell-Barker (6–2)grade A · 5 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 9:37Penalty
  • 2nd 9:37Penalty
  • 2nd 17:49Penalty
  • 3rd 1:25Penalty
  • 3rd 4:35Penalty
  • 3rd 10:33Penalty
  • 3rd 10:33Penalty
  • 3rd 10:33Penalty
  • 3rd 14:18Penalty
  • 3rd 14:55Dalibor Dvorský (6–3)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Dylan Garand