AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 25

Iowa Wild at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Iowa Wild
2:0
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

IATEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
2.21.7
High danger
21
Chances
77
Shots
2224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal24
7Scoring chances7
2High-danger chances1
2.19Expected goals1.73

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–34–12–01.2–0.3
2nd6–121–40–10.6–0.9
3rd4–92–20–00.4–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen
Shots faced
24
Saves
24
Allowed
0
xGA
1.73
GSAx
+1.73
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
22
Saves
20
Allowed
2
xGA
2.19
GSAx
+0.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:53Penalty
  • 1st 11:56Riley Heidt (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 16:07Penalty
  • 2nd 4:13Penalty
  • 2nd 7:52Penalty
  • 2nd 7:52Penalty
  • 2nd 7:52Penalty
  • 2nd 14:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:03Penalty
  • 2nd 19:03Penalty
  • 2nd 19:03Penalty
  • 3rd 10:06Penalty
  • 3rd 19:46Hunter Haight (2–0)empty net · medium · 20 ft · beat Rémi Poirier