AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 25

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds
3:4
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
55%45%
xG
2.32.2
High danger
32
Chances
59
Shots
2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26
5Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances2
2.30Expected goals2.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–111–41–10.6–0.9
2nd13–73–12–11.2–0.6
3rd7–81–40–00.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
2.30
GSAx
-0.70
Victor Östman
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
2.19
GSAx
-1.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:43Sam Morton (0–1)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 1st 8:31Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 4:23Hunter Brzustewicz (0–2)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 2nd 7:00Carson Rehkopf (1–2)high · tip · 6 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 2:04Lukas Dragicevic (2–2)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 9:00Sam Morton (2–3)medium · snap · 15 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 3rd 9:55Penalty
  • 3rd 14:17Penalty
  • 3rd 14:17Penalty
  • 3rd 19:03Hunter Brzustewicz (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 134 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 3rd 19:17Penalty
  • 3rd 19:52Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (3–4)5v4 · medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov