Milwaukee Admirals at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Milwaukee Admirals

2:3

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

MILSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 1.93.2
High danger: 33
Chances: 513
Shots: 2239

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal39

5Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances3

1.92Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	2–6	1–1	0.7–1.3
2nd	7–12	0–4	0–1	0.4–0.9
3rd	9–14	3–3	2–1	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +0.19

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.92
GSAx: -0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:39Penalty
1st 6:34Penalty
1st 7:37Ryan Ufko (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 13:20Ethan Cardwell (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 15:12Penalty
2nd 12:06Penalty
2nd 13:12Luca Cagnoni (1–2)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 18:55Oasiz Wiesblatt (2–2)low · 21 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 6:07Penalty
3rd 7:08Colin White (2–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 8:40Penalty
3rd 11:29Penalty