Rockford IceHogs at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Rockford IceHogs

4:0

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

RFDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.63.7
High danger: 65
Chances: 1316
Shots: 2338

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 74% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal38

13Scoring chances16

6High-danger chances5

2.63Expected goals3.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–12	5–4	2–2	1.1–1.0
2nd	6–10	2–6	1–1	0.6–1.2
3rd	9–16	6–6	3–2	1.0–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 38
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.65
GSAx: +3.65

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:55Penalty
1st 8:29Joey Anderson (1–0)low · 35 ft · beat Isak Posch
1st 10:32Penalty
2nd 1:49Penalty
2nd 9:16Aidan Thompson (2–0)high · 7 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 19:34Penalty
3rd 4:01Penalty
3rd 10:12Penalty
3rd 12:52Penalty
3rd 12:52Penalty
3rd 13:11Dominic Toninato (3–0)medium · 35 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 16:03Oliver Moore (4–0)empty net · low · 82 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 17:40Penalty