Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

1:4

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.02.0
High danger: 11
Chances: 86
Shots: 2425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances1

1.95Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	1–1	0–0	0.3–0.7
2nd	7–10	2–4	0–1	0.4–1.1
3rd	13–4	5–1	1–0	1.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -1.96

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: +0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 16:10Penalty
2nd 2:52Cam Berg (1–0)low · 62 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 6:08Penalty
2nd 7:28Georgii Merkulov (1–1)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 9:05Penalty
2nd 11:34Brett Harrison (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 0:32Georgii Merkulov (1–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 13:32Penalty
3rd 13:32Penalty
3rd 14:08Penalty
3rd 18:06Frederic Brunet (1–4)empty net · low · 176 ft · beat Marcus Högberg