Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign

5:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

90%10%

xG: 3.01.3
High danger: 20
Chances: 115
Shots: 3115

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal15

11Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances0

2.96Expected goals1.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–4	4–2	0–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	13–3	6–1	2–0	1.5–0.2
3rd	7–8	1–2	0–0	0.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	10:32	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: -1.06

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.31
GSAx: -0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:14Vilmer Alriksson (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 15:35Cole Guttman (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 18:25Taylor Ward (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:26Penalty
2nd 5:11Samuel Bolduc (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 8:30Penalty
2nd 8:30Penalty
2nd 9:45Penalty
2nd 12:34Francesco Pinelli (4–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 14:18Penalty
2nd 14:18Penalty
3rd 2:41Sawyer Mynio (4–2)low · 52 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 7:19Penalty
3rd 19:32Jared Wright (5–2)empty net · low · 59 ft