Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

6:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

90%10%

xG: 4.41.5
High danger: 112
Chances: 153
Shots: 3224

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances3

11High-danger chances2

4.39Expected goals1.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	4–1	3–1	1.2–0.4
2nd	6–8	2–1	2–1	0.7–0.5
3rd	14–9	9–1	6–0	2.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.52
GSAx: +0.52

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: +1.21

Nikita Quapp

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.18
GSAx: -2.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:54Nick Lardis (1–0)low · 25 ft · beat Nikita Quapp
1st 1:36Jackson Cates (2–0)low · 46 ft · beat Nikita Quapp
1st 6:29Oliver Moore (3–0)high · 11 ft · beat Nikita Quapp
1st 15:37Penalty
1st 17:45Nick Lardis (4–0)low · 32 ft · beat Nikita Quapp
2nd 3:45Joey Anderson (5–0)high · 12 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 4:30Samuel Savoie (6–0)low · 31 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 5:25Penalty
2nd 9:14Penalty
2nd 13:09Noel Gunler (6–1)low · 22 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 17:50Penalty
2nd 19:17Penalty
2nd 19:23Penalty
3rd 2:08Penalty
3rd 4:11Penalty
3rd 5:06Penalty
3rd 6:41Penalty
3rd 7:20Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 9:42Penalty
3rd 16:51Penalty