Grand Rapids Griffins at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:3

Final / SO

Iowa Wild

The sheet

GRIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.74.6
High danger: 29
Chances: 917
Shots: 2940

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal40

9Scoring chances17

2High-danger chances9

2.67Expected goals4.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–15	3–6	0–2	0.6–1.4
2nd	14–9	5–4	2–2	1.4–1.0
3rd	6–13	1–7	0–5	0.5–2.1
OT	2–3	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:37	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 37
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.59
GSAx: +1.59

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: -0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Penalty
1st 1:10Penalty
1st 8:42Penalty
1st 9:47Penalty
1st 9:56Gerry Mayhew (0–1)5v4 · grade A · 10 ft · beat Michal Postava
1st 12:04Penalty
1st 15:38Penalty
2nd 2:46Alex Doucet (1–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 8:24Penalty
2nd 10:27Penalty
2nd 10:39Penalty
2nd 10:39Penalty
2nd 12:47Penalty
2nd 13:20Penalty
2nd 15:46Nate Danielson (2–1)high · 5 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 17:41Penalty
2nd 18:26Liam Öhgren (2–2)5v4 · medium · 45 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 4:07Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 11:13John Leonard (3–2)low · 26 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 19:33Gerry Mayhew (3–3)grade A · 12 ft · beat Michal Postava