AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, October 28

Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors
4:5
Final / OT
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.53.4
High danger
46
Chances
1115
Shots
2334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal34
11Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances6
2.52Expected goals3.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–72–30–20.4–0.6
2nd5–152–81–40.4–1.9
3rd10–87–43–01.7–0.7
OT0–40–00–00.0–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:042:19+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram
Shots faced
34
Saves
29
Allowed
5
xGA
3.43
GSAx
-1.57
Isak Posch
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
2.52
GSAx
-1.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:13Penalty
  • 1st 15:27Penalty
  • 1st 16:15Quinn Hutson (1–0)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 1st 18:15Penalty
  • 1st 18:47Tye Felhaber (1–1)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 2:32Penalty
  • 2nd 5:38James Hamblin (2–1)high · 13 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 2nd 13:36Penalty
  • 2nd 15:34Jayson Megna (2–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 17:58Penalty
  • 2nd 18:43Penalty
  • 2nd 18:43Penalty
  • 2nd 19:45Tristen Nielsen (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 0:17Seth Griffith (3–3)low · 27 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 1:23Jayson Megna (3–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 15:34Penalty
  • 3rd 19:15James Hamblin (4–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 19:51Penalty
  • OT 1:46Jason Polin (4–5)5v4 · low · 9 ft · beat Connor Ingram