Charlotte Checkers at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Charlotte Checkers

1:4

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

CLTHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.12.4
High danger: 16
Chances: 610
Shots: 3123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal23

6Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances6

2.10Expected goals2.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–14	2–5	0–3	0.7–1.3
2nd	10–4	3–4	1–3	0.7–0.9
3rd	12–5	1–1	0–0	0.8–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +1.10

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: -1.38

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.79
GSAx: -0.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:33Jack Devine (1–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 14:06Penalty
1st 17:39Penalty
1st 18:52Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 0:30Justin Dowling (1–2)high · 9 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 7:56Gabe Perreault (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 9:10Penalty
2nd 12:15Penalty
2nd 18:45Justin Dowling (1–4)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
3rd 10:08Penalty