Hershey Bears at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hershey Bears

3:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HERBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 2.31.7
High danger: 50
Chances: 76
Shots: 2424

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances0

2.31Expected goals1.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	0–5	0–0	0.4–1.0
2nd	11–5	6–0	4–0	1.4–0.2
3rd	4–8	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: -0.69

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.69
GSAx: +0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:39Penalty
1st 12:21Penalty
1st 18:06Cam Berg (0–1)medium · 31 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
2nd 2:38Ilya Protas (1–1)high · 22 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 3:50Ryan Chesley (2–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 11:59Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 18:14Penalty
2nd 19:18Graeme Clarke (3–1)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 2:28Penalty
3rd 18:48Penalty