AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, October 29

Syracuse Crunch at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Syracuse Crunch
5:4
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SYRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
52%48%
xG
2.42.6
High danger
53
Chances
710
Shots
2324

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal24
7Scoring chances10
5High-danger chances3
2.41Expected goals2.65

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–71–20–10.3–0.8
2nd8–113–53–21.0–1.2
3rd9–63–32–01.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.65
GSAx
-1.35
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
2.41
GSAx
-2.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 14:00Travis Boyd (0–1)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 1st 18:23Penalty
  • 2nd 1:30Penalty
  • 2nd 2:19Penalty
  • 2nd 5:38Wojciech Stachowiak (1–1)low · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 6:15Tommy Miller (2–1)low · 41 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 7:21Penalty
  • 2nd 9:08Penalty
  • 2nd 10:15Penalty
  • 2nd 10:56Jakob Pelletier (3–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 12:15Conor Geekie (4–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 12:25Alex Nylander (4–2)high · 11 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 2nd 14:23Penalty
  • 2nd 17:32Chas Sharpe (4–3)low · 26 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 3rd 10:22Penalty
  • 3rd 14:10Penalty
  • 3rd 14:10Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Boris Katchouk (5–3)empty net · low · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 19:43Henry Thrun (5–4)low · 65 ft · beat Brandon Halverson