Providence Bruins at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Providence Bruins

3:1

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

PROWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 1.62.4
High danger: 33
Chances: 610
Shots: 1626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances3

1.59Expected goals2.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	3–2	3–0	0.8–0.5
2nd	5–13	3–6	0–3	0.5–1.4
3rd	4–6	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +1.41

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.59
GSAx: -1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:19Penalty
2nd 4:44Brett Harrison (1–0)low · wrist · 42 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 10:12Penalty
2nd 13:03Riley Tufte (2–0)medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 14:10Valtteri Puustinen (2–1)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 17:31Georgii Merkulov (3–1)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Sergei Murashov